Air Quality Action Alert for Friday, July 6 in Susquehanna Valley

Forecast
Friday, Jul 6: 110 AQI Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups Ozone
55 AQI Moderate Particle Pollution (2.5 microns)
Current Conditions as of 2 PM on Tuesday: A weak area of high pressure that was overhead this morning has begun to move north and east. This system was responsible for the mostly sunny skies that we had seen earlier today. This system is being forced northeast by an approaching warm front. The warm front, associated with a low pressure system currently sitting over central Canada, will pass through this evening bringing showers and a possible thunderstorm overnight and into Wednesday. ***Independence Day Forecast: Partly cloudy skies, but hot and humid with a high in the mid-90s. Spotty showers and the chance for convective storm development remain for most of the mid-week holiday. A cold front, also associated with the low, will drive the warm front northeast and have its chance to pass through the region Wednesday afternoon. Depending on how widespread these storms are, Code Orange air quality is possible. With the combination of westerly transport, high dew points, and temperatures remaining above seasonable, both ozone and PM 2.5 will be on the rise into at least the moderate range. ***Thursday’s Forecast: Following that secondary frontal passage, a large area of high pressure will bring an end to any remaining showers on Thursday morning. The chance for some convective storm activity remains for the afternoon as we transition between systems. A drier air mass will be in store as winds turn northwesterly around the circulation of the high that will settle in. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures above normal are expected. Some inconsistencies among the models are leaving air quality levels questionable. PM 2.5 should remain in the low to mid-moderate range as dew points dip back into the mid-60s and northwesterly winds limit transport. On the other hand, ozone holds the potential of reaching Code Orange depending on the arrival time and positioning of the high pressure system. For now, expect upper moderate levels. Stay tuned as the forecast will updated as necessary. ***Extended Outlook: Friday will again be mostly sunny with a high in the low 90s. We can expect to see Code Orange levels reached throughout the forecast area. PM concentrations will be limited to the upper good threshold on Friday as northerly transport will be in control. Similar conditions are expected for Saturday until a frontal system passes through in the evening. This frontal passage should occur late Saturday and bring showers overnight. We may see some lingering showers on Sunday, but should quickly clear out by noon. This will allow both ozone and PM to settle back into the moderate range. Expect a clear and comfortable start to next week as temperatures dip back to seasonable following the frontal passage. –Brown

 

This forecast is brought to you by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PA DEP) and the Air Quality Partnership of the Susquehanna Valley.

* You can follow the Susquehanna Valley air quality forecast on Follow the Susquehanna Valley air quality forecast on Twitter and Follow the Susquehanna Valley Air Quality Partnership on Facebook

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